Greetings earthlings! I’ve retreated into my pod for the past couple of days to crunch more numbers on this mechanical trading system. Here’s how it fared for the first quarter of 2018.
If this is the first time you’re reading about the Inside Bar Momentum Strategy, I suggest you take a look at the system rules first.
ICYMI, I also applied stop loss adjustments to this quarter’s trades. I’m using 40% of the first candlestick’s length as basis for the stops compared to the original 20%.
And I know I haven’t really covered the position sizing rules for this system just yet but, for simplicity’s sake, I decided to assume 1% risk per trade in order to help me analyze performance.
Since I’m running this strategy on a per pair basis, I crunched the numbers for USD/JPY first:
This pair had more opened positions in Q1 2018 than in the previous quarter and a slightly better win rate of 57.14%.
To top it off, USD/JPY logged in an impressive 13.66% gain for the quarter even though its average win percentage of 1.31% is lower compared to Q4 2017’s 1.48%. Its average loss percentage is roughly the same as in the previous quarter but the pair barely saw any losing streaks then.
Looking at the breakdown of trades per week shows that the pair chalked up a five-trade winning streak in the third week of February, coming from an earlier positive run of three consecutive trades.
Now here are the numbers for GBP/JPY:
Guppy also caught more signals this Q1 2018 compared to the earlier quarter and was able to end up with a much higher gain of 9.68% for the period.Particularly impressive is its eight-trade winning streak (EIGHT!!) in the last week of January onto the first few days of February. It was able to rake in 8.64% in gains then, although a couple of three-trade losing streaks forced the pair to return most of those winnings.
Still, the pair scored a higher average win compared to its average loss, which is always a plus in my book. Its win rate is also looking good at 56.25%, which is an improvement compared to Q4 2017 but still behind the 65.62% record back in Q2.
All in all, these numbers add up to 39.54% in gains for USD/JPY since the start of 2017 and 47.29% for GBP/JPY. This robot ain’t complainin’!