And just like that, the first quarter of the year is done! I didn’t really have a lot of setups taken over the past few months, but it seems that this swing approach is working out for me.
In fact, I only took TWO out of the seven trade ideas I posted since the start of the year, and here’s how the numbers are looking:
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|Jan 4||CAD/JPY Ready for an Uptrend||Not taken||Not taken|
|Jan 18||CAD/CHF Rebound in Sight?||Not taken||Not taken|
|Feb 8||NZD/CAD Prepping for Another Big Rally||+150||+0.50|
|Feb 22||NZD/JPY Break and Retest Over||Missed entry||Missed entry|
|Feb 26||Waiting for Bullish Momentum on EUR/AUD||Not taken||Not taken|
|Mar 1||More Downside on GBP/CHF?||Not Taken||Not taken|
|Mar 8||GBP/CAD Long-Term Reversal Pattern||+300||+0.375|
No. of Trades Taken: 2
No. of Wins: 2
No. of Losses: 0
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 100%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.437%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: 0.00
Total P/L: +0.875%
Not a bad way to start the year!
I took even fewer trades compared to Q4 2017 since I got badly burned that quarter and I decided to take it slow and revive my trading confidence this time.
Sentiment kept flipping on a dime, too, but we did see some strong trends that enabled me to hop in on small retracements and join bigger moves. I was initially bullish on the Loonie because crude oil was off to a roaring start in 2018, but I tried to stay flexible and adapt to changes in fundamentals.
I also tried to stay in the long sterling boat for a bit longer, but I figured I’d be better off locking in my gains when Brexit jitters started to resurface. Here’s a brief rundown:
CAD/JPY Ready for an Uptrend: I spotted a long-term double bottom on this pair just as crude oil chalked up one positive week after another, but there was something about weakening Canadian fundamentals and fading risk appetite that discouraged me from taking this setup. And thank goodness I stayed out!
CAD/CHF Rebound in Sight: Yep, I thought of catching yet another long Loonie position the following week, but once more decided against it when near-term support levels just couldn’t seem to hold.
NZD/CAD Prepping for Another Big Rally: When February rolled along, the tide was starting to turn against the Loonie when NAFTA talks couldn’t seem to make progress. Around that time, doubts about another BOC hike this year also grew due to downbeat Canadian data. I was actually aiming for a large long-term target but decided to jump out when I felt in my gut that the RBNZ would be less upbeat.
GBP/AUD Ascending Trend Line Pullback: This was also a solid idea but price didn’t actually correct as low as the entry area at 1.7250 I was watching. Still, it’s worth noting that the climb went on for a few weeks and I could’ve caught a few more short-term dips. D’oh!
NZD/JPY Break and Retest Over: This setup was showed a really neat confluence and the textbook break-and-retest play, but I kept hesitating that I missed several good entries. I had plans to short around the 79.00 area and looking back at the charts now makes me wish I did!
Waiting for Bullish Momentum on EUR/AUD: At that time, this was a really good match-up in terms of strong vs. weak fundamentals as rate hike talks picked up for the ECB while the RBA sounded less upbeat than expected. However, price was stuck in consolidation for such a long time that I ditched the idea to look for others.
More Downside Momentum on GBP/CHF: This one I’m really thankful that I didn’t take because price went in the complete opposite direction of what I was eyeing. Fortunately I opted to hop in on a breakdown for confirmation and that never really happened. Phew!
GBP/CAD Reversal Chart Pattern: Capping off my trade ideas for the month was this double bottom play on GBP/CAD. This was also a solid match of strong vs. weak fundamentals as fading Brexit jitters and hawkish BOE expectations kept lifting the pound while the Loonie reeled from risk-off vibes and the usual trade jitters. I decided to hop out early, though, since I didn’t want to leave any profits on the line ahead of major catalysts.
Unlike the previous quarter, I’m actually happy about how this period turned out, even though I was mostly cherry-picking my plays. Of course this also prevented me from catching potentially good wins since I still have a tendency of being too careful. Just gotta remind myself that I’m keeping my losses limited with proper risk management and I should be fine, right?
Got any tips for me to keep improving my trading performance for the next few months?
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