On one side, the Bank of Japan is finally, finally, looking serious about raising rates, with markets pricing a June hike at roughly 77% odds. On the other, the Fed is stuck in policy mud, boxed in by inflation that just hit its hottest reading since 2023 and unable to cut without risking an even bigger price problem. That makes USD/JPY the cleanest spot to watch this tug of war play out. With WTI crude hovering near $99, a Trump Xi summit underway in Beijing, and U.S. PPI due Wednesday, traders have plenty of catalysts that could finally shake the pair out of its stalemate.