Trade Closed: 2013-07-09 16:42 ET
Good afternoon forex friends! I decided that closing out the position at these levels and getting back on the side lines would be the best idea ahead of some top tier events and as the market currently tests major support.
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Since my last update, EUR/USD found support at the beginning of this week, probably thanks to the news that Greece received more aid from European governments on Monday. This was short-lived as euro bears took that as an opportunity to play the downtrend around the 1.2900 handle. After a break of 1.2800 during this morning’s US session, I decided to add back a half position at 1.2788 to maximize profit in case we see momentum take the pair lower.
It’s now the end of the US session, and we’ve got the FOMC meeting minutes and Bernanke giving a speech tomorrow at the National Bureau of Economic Research Conference. And while I don’t expect them to be a huge catalyst, I don’t want to take a chance of a negative USD suprise. Besides that, I’m more concerned that we’ll finally see a reversal higher in EUR/USD after the pair has dropped over the past 3 weeks from 1.3400 to its current levels at just under 1.2800. It might be time for traders to take profits, and what would be a better place than the major support area between 1.2750 – 1.2800, the March 2013 lows. So I closed my remaining open position at 1.2788.
1st half: +130 pips
2nd half: +225 pips
3rd half: +0 pips
Total: +177.5 avg. pips/ +1.18% gain
In hindsight, there were probably two things I could have done differently. First, was to keep my full position on into the US NFP report. There was a lot of evidence from ISM services and ADP that this would be a positive number; it was positive surprise and very bullish for the Greenback. Second, I could have added back another half position as the pair was testing 1.2900, or just under it. I had already commented in social media that this would be an attractive area for sellers to jump back in; I should have listened to my hunch and taken advantage of the pull back.
Overall, it was a good trade, but I could have definitely done better. Trade management and timing is the hardest part of the this business for me, so I’ll definitely continue to focus on making better decisions in that regard.
I’m still bearish on EUR/USD, but I think we’ll see a pull back that will allow me to jump in this pair short at a good price. If the pair breaks lower past the March lows, the next area of support seems to be the 1.2650 – 1.2700 range, so that event may be good for a short-term trade. In either case, I’ll stay on my toes to act when the opportunity is right. Until then, thanks for checking out my blog and stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!
Trade Update: 2013-07-05 15:55 ET
Good afternoon traders! Big moves thanks to both the ECB meeting and US NFP events over the last two sessions. Here’s a quick update on the adjustments made to reduce risk into the weekend.
To be honest, I didn’t think anything new would come from the ECB meeting, but lo and behold, Draghi surprises the markets by actually giving forward guidance….what?! Analysts already suspect that low interest rates would most likely be here to stay for the eurozone, but to actually have Draghi say it was a shocker. EUR/USD dropped on the event, and I decided to create a risk free trade by basically taking my stop to breakeven.
US employment data came out today. To avoid the possibility of a disappointment, I closed out half of my position (1.2883) to lock in gains. Fortunately for USD bulls, it was a better-than-expected number (+195K vs. +165K forecast) and we saw another spike lower in EUR/USD to 1.2800. After the market settle just above 1.2800, I decided to move the stop on my remaining position to 1.2910 to lock in profits ahead of the weekend.
Overall, I think these events may support a further downtrend in EUR/USD for the time being, and since Asia has yet to price in the US jobs data I decided to keep my position open over the weekend to catch a possible sell off at the open of trade on Monday. We’ll see what happens.
But until then, it’s time to review the week in trading and enjoy the weekend! Thanks for checking out my blog and have a great weekend!
Trade Idea: 2013-07-03 12:11 ET
Good morning! Today, I decided to jump in on the fresh EUR/USD downtrend as the Greenback finds support and the euro falls on fresh Portugal news.
We saw broad weakness today in the euro thanks to news that two ministers resigned from the government, sparking speculation and a possible return of focus to the European debt situation. At the very least, political instability (not only in Europe but also what we’re seeing in Egypt) should be a short-term catalyst for risk aversion, which is usually US Dollar bullish. Additionally, to make an argument for a bearish case, June euro zone PMI’s continue to show mostly contraction in the area’s manufacturing sector.
On the other side of the pond, we saw mixed data from the US, but mostly good as ADP Non-Farm Employment data came in better-than-expected (188K vs. 161K), which could setup a positive government number on Friday. If so, it supports the argument for a Fed Taper sooner rather than later, which can be Dollar bullish.
So, I’m short-term bearish on the pair for now, and with the spike higher thanks to a weak ISM Services PMI number just a couple of hours ago, I can get in short at a good price.
Technically, the pair was in consolidation mode last week, so this break below 1.3000 on geopolitical uncertainty and US economic strength might be the real deal. I waited for a retest of the break, and with market back in the consolidation zone, I decided to short a full position. My stop is wide because of this Friday’s NFP report, but I also have large targets as I ultimately target March lows. Here’s what I am doing:
Short EUR/USD at market (1.3013), stop at 1.3163, max profit target at 1.2750
I’m only risking 1.00% of my account on this one, and with this trade structure, I have a potential reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.75:1. Depending on the driving themes at the time, if the market hits the May lows I may scale in or out half a position and trail my stop. Of course, anything can happen in the forex markets, so if the story drastically changes, I’ll be sure to reassess and adjust quickly if necessary. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!
Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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