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Close Trade: 2009-04-17 14:35

Good afternoon! Since my trade idea, USD/JPY has pretty much stayed put. Recent economic reports have brought a bit of action to the markets, but no real direction was established as the pair made lows around 98.50 and a high around 99.70 for the past few days.

Because it is the end of the week, and to avoid weekend risk (i.e gap up or gap down, surprise news event), I have decided to close my trade for a very small loss.

Closing trading at market (99.26).

Total: -13 pips/ -0.0949% loss

Next week, I plan on revisiting EUR/USD as the drama at the ECB and recession in the Eurozone starts to take effect on the currency pair. For now, stay tuned and have a great weekend!

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Trade Idea: 2009-04-15 13:49

PoD Chart

Good afternoon! It looks like USD/JPY is bucking the trending higher, and on the recent retracement, is presenting a nice opportunity to go short. Check it out!

I have the four hour chart up and it is a pretty simple technical setup. We can see the rising trendline break down to around 98.00 before retracing back higher. During the retracement, we can see a doji candle – signaling a potential reversal back to the downside.

I like a short on this pair on short-term risk aversion sentiment. US data is coming out weak once again as we see weakness in wholesale prices, PPI, CPI, and retail sales. It looks like the bottom economically is no where to be seen in 2009. Perhaps in 2010? TIC data came out better than expected, but does anyone really think 22B is enough to cover the trillions in deficit the US is creating? Probably not, but this is an interest data point to watch over the next few months. So, I am short-term bearish on this pair. Here’s what I am going to do:

Short USD/JPY at market (99.13), stop at 100.50, pt1 at 98.30, pt2 at 96.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

We still have plenty of US data through the end of the week, so stay focused an flexible!

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