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Close Trade: 2008-10-03 10:16

Non-Farm Payrolls came out weaker than expected (-159K), immediately pushing down USD/JPY past 105.00. Unfortunately for my position, the pair quickly found buyers around 104.50 and USD/JPY quickly rallied up. I have decided to close the position and start my weekend early.

Close position at market (104.60)

1st Half: +100 pips
2nd Half: +90 pips
Total: +0.975% gain

Have a great weekend everyone! USD/JPY Forums
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Stop Adjustment: 2008-10-03 07:47

We’ve got the US Payrolls report coming up in less than an hour and the outcome of the vote on legislation to unfreeze the credit markets. It’s going to be a bit bumpy during the morning US trading session, so I have decided to adjust my stop on my remaining position to lock in more profits.

Adjusting stop to 105.75 to lock in profits and create a risk free trade.

I have a feeling we’re going to see weakness in the jobs report, especially with September being a wild month where we saw a major investment bank fail, and record high unemployment claims reports almost every week. This should be beneficial to my trade if weaker numbers do come out. Stay tuned!

Trade Adjustment: 2008-10-02 01:31

My first profit target was hit yesterday during the morning US session and half of my position was closed at 105.50. I adjusted the stop on my remaining position to breakeven at 106.50.

Since I have already locked in some profit, I am going to keep my remaining position open for now. If I decide to close ahead of the US Jobs report I’ll post an update. Stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2008-10-01 09:04

My short entry orders at 106.50 was triggered and the pair found enough sellers to bring it back below 106.00 temporarily. The pair is back above 106.00 in the Euro/US overlap trading session, but I’m still in positive pips and I plan on holding for the rest of the day as the resistance area under the trendline continues to hold.

We still have the uncertainty of the bailout plan looming, but we have event risk coming that may actually take focus off of what is going on in Washington, DC. The US Non-Farm Payroll report for September is set to be released tomorrow. I usually get out of positions before the report, and tomorrow will be no different. With so much uncertainty going on, I’ll definitely close my position sometime before tomorrow mornings report. Stay tuned!

Trade Idea: 2008-09-30

PoD Chart

Well, yesterday was a wild day wasn’t it? And for a second I thought I was going to miss the downtrend in USD/JPY, but after the sharp selloff the pair found a bid at previous resistance. Are sellers waiting at the falling trendline once again?

We have a descending triangle pattern forming on the four hour chart, and with the pair heading higher, it may be a good time jump back in short at the falling trendline. Pretty simple right? Let’s take a quick look at the fundamentals before we make a move further….

As my buddy Happypip stated in her blog, the only fundies that matter now a days is the credit crisis and the US governments plan to stem off financial meltdown. The plan failed to pass yesterday, and we saw risk aversion as equites, commodities, and carry trades drop like a rock. We’re seeing a bounce back today, but is it just another “bear market rally?” I’d like to think so, because even if the a plan is put in place to get the credit markets back to doing business as normal, there’s still more de-leveraging, housing troubles, job concerns, etc. to go. I like a short on USD/JPY on the idea that we still have further risk aversion to go in the medium term. Work in the speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates, and it doesn’t look too good for the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

Here’s what I am going to do:

Short USD/JPY at 106.50, stop at 107.50, pt1 at 105.50, pt2 at 104.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned, good luck, and good trading!

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