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Trade Closed: 2009-04-14 00:49

Good evening! The Greenback sold off against most of the majors at the beginning of trading this week on general risk tolerance growth. This pushed EUR/USD up a couple of handles and my position back to my adjusted stop at break even.

1st Half: +150 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +0.375% gain

So, I took a very small gain on this trade and in hindsight, it would have been more prudent to take the whole position off into the holiday week and as the pair tested previous lows. Weak data coming from the Eurozone led me to hold onto my bearish euro bias and it looks like I missed out on some extra pips because of it.

This may be another opportunity to short EUR/USD at great price and it seems the rally higher has already run out of steam. I will look to short again very soon, so stay tuned! EUR/USD Forums
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Trade Adjustment: 2009-04-09 12:12

Good afternoon everyone! Since my post, EUR/USD rallied just enough to trigger my short entry price at 1.3290, and after a couple of days of consolidation it looks like traders are selling euros against the Greenback this morning. So, a nice little pip gain on the session, and while I still hold a short bias on this pair I am going to make a few adjustments to my position to reduce my risk going into the long holiday weekend.

Close half position at market (1.3140) to lock in profits. Adjusting stop on remaining position to breakeven to create a risk free trade.

So, from this point on, I will trail my stop by 200 pips and continue to target 1.2850. Thanks for checking out my blog! Have a great weekend!

Trade Idea: 2009-04-07 08:20

PoD Chart

Good morning! It’s been a hot minute since I’ve posted on here, but with risk aversion returning to the markets and a nice, simple technical setup forming on EUR/USD I think I’ll jump back in!

Well, it looks like it has been a “bear market rally” with confidence rising on better data, government plans, and positive rhetoric, but it looks like focus is returning to forecasts that the growth is still slowing global for the rest of the year. We continue to see major issues as jobs losses continue to mount and banks are forecasted to possibly bigger losses than in the Great Depression…yikeeess!!

So, I am short bias once again on EUR/USD on general risk aversion as we may see flight to safety back to the Greenback.

On the 4 hour chart, I have drawn a simple trendline, and it looks like the market is breaking to the downside. While this may be the signal traders are looking for, I think I will wait for a slight pull back to towards the trendline before jumpiing in short. I have drawn the Fibonacci to find possible levels of support and profit targets. My stop is a healthy 200 pips – the daily range of EUR/USD. Here’s what I am going to do:

Short EUR/USD at 1.3290, stop at 1.3490, pt1 at 1.3090, pt2 at 1.2850

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

No major news for the rest of today’s US trading session, but look for Eurozone trade balance data tomorrow and the FOMC Meeting Minutes out of the US. Negative comments on growth for 2009 from Bernanke and company could kill confidence a bit more. Stay tuned!

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