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Trade Closed: 2008-07-17 19:04

Looks like our adjusted stop was triggered as volatility in EUR/USD seemed to increase throughout the US session, moving the pair back and forth between 1.58 and 1.59 today.

The remaining portion of our trade was closed at break even as the US Dollar rallied this afternoon on oil weakness.

1st Half: +40 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +40 pips/ +.33% gain

Choppiness may continue tomorrow heading into the weekend, which is what I look to prepare for in tonight’s trade idea. Stay tuned!

Trade Adjustment: 2008-07-17 11:36

It’s been a mini-rollercoaster ride for our trade today and as we approach the end of the Euro/US trading session overlap, I’d like to make a quick trade adjustment as it appears 1.5880 – 1.5890 is going to hold EUR/USD bulls.

Close Half position at market (1.5870) to lock in 40 pips. Adjust stop on remaining position to breakeven.

So, we’ve just locked in a few pips and created a risk free trade. I did this as it looks like the pair will continue to range for now and through the end of the week and it may be prudent to lock in some profits today. Stay tuned for further adjustments and updates. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2008-07-16 19:54

The US Dollar continued to rally today after hitting all time lows against the Euro yesterday. The pair fell low enough to hit our long orders at 1.5830. It looks like the 1.58 area is holding for now, but will Dollar bulls be able to push through?

The momentum was strong in favor of the US Dollar today, but I’m still going to hold onto this trade as I still remain Dollar bearish on fundamentals. Again, the Fed’s focus is on stabilizing the financial markets and economic growth, so no rate hikes are expected in the US and it looks like growth will continue to slow in the US for now. This sentiment should be enforced tomorrow with US housing data tomorrow (building permits and housing starts).

Our risk for now is the markets may continue to rally with the Greenback as the US Dollar seems extremely oversold, but I think fundamentals will dominate for the rest of the week.

This may end up being a longer term trade, so stay tuned for now and good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-07-15 21:16

PoD Chart

What a day for the Greenback as traders sold the currency down to new all time lows against the Euro before rebounding back to 1.5900. Is the pull back a chance to ride the rally higher or was 1.60 the magic number to hold off further USD selling?

So, we are now in an extremely USD bearish environment with renewed financial market fears. Fed chairman Bernanke testified to the US Senate today, basically saying that the Fed’s main focus is now economic growth rather than price stability for the time being. While this makes tomorrow’s US CPI data a little less relevant, I’m sure we will see a bit of reaction to the data. It looks like no US rate hikes for now. In the Eurozone, we do have CPI data coming up later as well, which may give the Euro a boost as it is likely to remain high. I think the market will continue to remain USD bearish for now, so let’s look for a long entry point in EUR/USD.

On the chart, we can see the pair pulling back from all time highs, and I’d like to see the pair pull back just a bit more to the 50% Fibonacci level before pulling the trigger on a long trade. I look to:

Long EUR/USD at 1.5830, stop at 1.5760, pt1 at 1.5900, pt2 at 1.5970

Never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Good luck and good trading!

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