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Trade Closed: 2008-06-20 10:05

Our trade was closed today as the US Dollar sold off as traders feel we may see the Fed hike rates later than first thought.

Trade stopped out.

Total: -100 pips/ -1.0%

The support area around 1.5460 held as the currency markets continue to remain sideways and choppy between 1.53 and 1.58. It looks like sentiment may be changing back to US Dollar short, but I’ll be watching 1.58 to see if the top of the range holds or breaks.

Trade Update: 2008-06-18 09:25

Just a quick update as our trade was triggered shortly after the idea was posted. After a bit of volatility throughout the Asia and European trading sessions, the pair is back below 1.55, currently giving us a profit.

I still plan on holding on this trade for now, but it looks like 1.5460 is the bottom of the mini-range we’re currently in now. That support may continue to hold for now until we see an event to hopefully push it lower. Stay tuned for updates and adjustments. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-06-17 08:57

PoD Chart

Good morning! EUR/USD has been trending lower on the sentiment that the Fed may have to eventually raise rates this year to battle inflation. With US PPI just released with a read hotter than expected at 1.4% versus the consensus of 1.0%, and housing data coming in pretty much inline, I think the Fed’s renewed focus on inflation may continue.

I would like to jump into the trend in EUR/USD as it looks like we have an opportunity to short off of the retracement, after the pair hit 1.53. Stochastics are showing overbought conditions, and with the Fibonacci tool, we can see 38% retracement lines up with 1.55 (a potentially strong psychological area).

So, I’m going to short at 1.55, with a stop above the most recent high and target 1.53.

Short EUR/USD at 1.5500, stop 1.5600, pt1 at 1.5400, pt2 at 1.5300

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned, good luck and good trading!

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