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Close Open Orders: 2008-05-30 10:00

EUR/USD was not able to make it above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level before falling further to its current levels around 1.55.

Close open orders. No trade.

After a few attempts to break the 1.58 – 1.60 area, it looks like the US Dollar is bottoming out versus the Euro. I don’t think we will know for sure until we see price action break and stay below 1.53, and even then the pair approaches the 200 SMA. So, I expect more choppiness from now, but with commodities taking a hit and hawkish commentary from Fed officials lately, I expect the Greenback to continue its rally in the short term.

I hope everyone has a great weekend and stay tuned for new ideas next week!

Trade Idea: 2008-05-28 23:33

PoD Chart

Good evening! While we let that USD/JPY trade marinate for a bit, I see a fibonacci setup on EUR/USD on the one hour chart.

As we can see, the pair has been in a downtrend as the Greenback has been rebounding on a broad basis. After hitting a low just above 1.56, the pair has retraced a bit. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we can see possible levels of resistance and opportunities to jump into the downtrend at a better price. Stochastics are trending higher as well, almost near overbought levels.

Before diving into the trade ideas, we should not that we do have mild event risk with German Unemployment, M3 Money Supply, and consumer confidence data from the EU. In the Us, Preliminary GDP and unemployment claims are in the line up for later. Please be cautious during those times.

So, I plan to be conservative with the data coming out and if the pair rises to 1.57, I would like to short at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Short EUR/USD at 1.5700, stop at 1.5730, pt1 at 1.5670, pt2 at 1.5610

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned, good luck and good trading!

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