Trade Closed: 2008-02-04 12:13
The remaining portion of our trade closed out Friday afternoon as the pair retraced back to our entry point.
1st Half: +30 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +30 pips/ +.3% gain
Again, we missed out on the short opportunity, but we always have to think “what’s our risk?” and at that moment before the numbers came out the risk on my mind was “how far can weak US data push up the EUR/USD pair.” The NFP’s pushed EUR/USD all the way up to 1.4950, just 10 pips below our stop out level. So, we may have been right and missed out on profit, but at least we didn’t take the chance of getting blown out on a very risky economic event and that’s good trading. Stay tuned fore new ideas!
Trade Adjustment: 2008-02-01 11:14
A lot of weak US data wasn’t enough to hold the Greenback down against the Euro. After the disappointing NFP read at -17k, the US Dollar rallied after a quick selloff on the news.
We missed the short trade after my trade adjustment to close open orders ahead of the report. It may be a little frustrating as that trade would have been a full winner, but for me the risk of weak data and the market’s reaction was too high. If the EUR/USD were not at all time highs, it may have broke higher.
Our long trade was triggered and with the current market trading around 1.4850 at the end of the Euro/US trading overlap, I will close down a portion of our position to lock in profits going into the weekend.
Close half position at market (1.4845). Adjust stop on remaining position to breakeven (1.4815). Continue to target 1.4900.
Trade Adjustment: 2008-02-01 08:12
Our short entry order was narrowly missed by a few pips and with EUR/USD now trading just below 1.4900 ahead of NFP, I will close my short entry orders.
Close short entry orders and leave long entry orders at 1.4815 open.
Stay tuned after the report for more updates and adjustments.
Trade Idea: 2008-01-31 21:33
It’s that time of the month – the Non-Farm Payroll report! This is the mother of all market movers and I suspect we will see movement ahead of the release as traders get positioned ahead of that report.
On the chart, we can see EUR/USD ranging for the last day or so and I believe this range will hold ahead of the report during the European trading session. With EUR/USD recently finding resistance at 1.49, another test may produce a failure to break as recent data from the Eurozone has been weak. Also, the rally seems to be topping out on the 4hr and Daily charts.
A return to 1.48 may bring buyers of the pair in as overall USD sentiment is weak on the recent US rate cuts. With the current trend to the upside, 1.48 makes sense to buy as it has held off sellers for the past two days.
The consensus on tomorrow’s report is about 58k jobs added last month. ADP came out with a number 130k added, so its up in the air where this number will land. Also, be on the lookout for revisions to previous month’s numbers. Any revisions lower will probably knock the Greenback lower.
Short EUR/USD at 1.4910, stop at 1.4960, pt1 at 1.4860, pt2 at 1.4830
Long EUR/USD at 1.4815, stop at 1.4765, pt1 at 1.4865, pt2 at 1.4900
Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.
So, we will do a range play today during the Asia/European trading session. Stay tuned for an update ahead of tomorrow’s US data if we are in a trade. I may or may not close it out. If we are not, I may close out open orders before the NFP report. Good luck and good trading!
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