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The latest monetary policy statement from the FOMC is just ahead, which makes this consolidation pattern on USD/JPY one to watch for a fresh swing play.

USD/JPY Consolidation Break?

USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart
USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart

On the four hour chart above, we’ve got a symmetrical triangle in the works on USD/JPY.  This is a chart pattern that often leads to a breakout one way or another, which tends to occur when the market gets a new major fundamental / news catalyst.

That catalyst for this particular scenario to lead to a break out may come from the latest U.S. monetary policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. That event is tomorrow, and expectations are for no policy changes from Powell and the gang at this meeting. But if they do surprise traders, it would likely mean a big reaction from all financial markets across the globe.

We’ve also got the latest monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan this Friday. It’s very rare for this event to be a big catalyst for the Japanese or the global markets, but likely any other central bank statement, it’s one you have to watch in case there are unforeseen moves made.

So for this week, I’m watching mainly the FOMC statement tomorrow, and if we get an unexpected change to monetary policy and/or the economic outlook, then I’ll be watching USD/JPY for a sustained break outside of the symmetrical triangle.

And unless we get rhetoric hinting at raising rates / reducing quantitative easing programs, I’m leaning bearish on the pair given the beating the Greenback has taken this year.

What do you guys think? Will the FOMC lead to a breakout in USD/JPY or will it be a dud event? 

Let me know in the comments below, and as always, remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t simply follow what I do.

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