What’s up forex fiends! USD/CHF is a potential market mover this week, not only for potential short-term gains, but also longer-term gains as the pair may be in the process of a break above a major area of interest.
A New Leg Higher in USD/CHF Ahead?
USD/CHF may be set to move soon as we’ll get the monthly U.S. jobs data tomorrow, and volatility may be bigger than usual as uncertainty with future Fed tapering and rate hike moves being the major market focus at the moment.
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Expectations for the latest U.S. Non-farm Payrolls report is an even bigger net jobs gain in June vs. May (+700K exp. vs. +559K) and for the unemployment rate to dip to 5.6% from 5.8%. If this plays out, then that U.S. bulls may continue to place bets that the Fed will push up bond tapering by the end of 2021, and rate hikes by early 2023 (maybe even in 2022).
But we just got the latest data from ISM Manufacturing PMI, and it looks like the employment index came in slightly below May at 49.9, making the potential outcome of tomorrow’s number pretty unclear at the moment.
So, we’ll be in wait-and-see mode for now, but if we see the bullish scenario of a big jobs beat, then the break above the major area of interest around the 0.9200 major psychological level may be solidified, and we’ll be watching for support to form to potential get positioned long in USD/CHF.
Of course, if the NFP report comes in below expectations, as it did last month, then we may see .9200 draw in profit takers from the recent rally up to that area from 0.8900, and possibly even short-term sellers looking to potentially catch a brief momentum move lower.
What do you guys think? Will we see a bullish or bearish NFP report? Are you trading the NFP report for shorter or longer term opportunities?
Let me know in the comments below, and as always, remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t simply follow what I do.
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