Rough run to start the second quarter of 2018, but I was able to knock out a couple of nice winners to soften to blow. Here’s a quick reflection and thoughts on improvement.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Apr 10||NZD/USD Falling to Bottom of Range?||-137||-0.30|
|Apr 13||Major Support Break on USD/JPY?||-122||-0.32|
|Apr 13||EUR/JPY Reversal To Continue?||-123||-0.25|
|May 1||Major Support Break on EUR/GBP?||-110||-0.50|
|May 22||Shorting AUD/JPY on Resistance Retest||-162||-0.41|
|Jun 5||Support Break on NZD/CAD||+234||+0.40|
|Jun 19||Short at Top of AUD/JPY Range||+209||+0.58|
|Jun 19||Sellers to Return to NZD/USD?||+00||+0.00|
|Jun 27||Downtrend Pullback on AUD/NZD||-70||-0.22|
Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q2: 9
Breakeven/No Trade: 1
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 25%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.44%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.32%
Largest Drawdown: -1.78%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q2 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -1.02% on 4.50% risk taken
Looking back and now armed with a little hindsight, I was correct in most of my directional biases, with the USD/JPY and EUR/GBP trades being the ones I was pretty off and continue to prove me wrong until this day.
The rest of the trades I was eventually proven right in direction, but it was my trade management decisions that did me in.
I was probably a bit too early/aggressive with my entries on the first NZD/USD idea, the EUR/JPY short, and the first AUD/JPY trades. All ended up moving with my bias (and in a big way), but since I was too early to get in each of those, it affected my exit decisions, which prevented me from catching some big moves later.
For example, my NZD/USD short trade never hit my original stop level and eventually dropped +500 pips from my original short entry at .7234. And the same goes for my EUR/JPY trade idea as the pair never hit my 133.75 stop before dropping as low as 124.62 in May–a 688 pip move from my original 131.50 entry!
And the missed pips didn’t always come from early entries but I was a bit too conservative with one trade. My bias in my second NZD/USD short idea in June was spot on, but I set my sell orders a little high and I probably should have jumped in at market after resistance held nicely. Probably around 300 pips in that one missed…ouch!
Overall, I’m happy that I got directional biases right, which is probably the one thing I have been consistent with over the last couple of years. But timing is always going to be a challenge and I just have to remember to be more patient and trust the space I set in my risk management plans to give the trades time to breathe and develop.
What do you think of my review and how did you do in Q2 2018? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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