I had a strong feeling that NZD/USD would plummet all the way down to the .8000 handle yesterday… and it did! Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to dive in as the pair didn’t reach my entry-level at .8100.
You see, I had been waiting for the pair to retrace, hoping that I could get in at a good price. However, the bearish sentiment for the Kiwi was way too strong that NZD/USD simply crashed below the .8050 minor psychological level as soon as the London session kicked off.
A part of me wishes that I took a breakout setup instead-but remembering how I got heartbroken from several fakeouts in the past kept me from jumping in at market and catching at least a part of the Kiwi drop.
I’ll be canceling my orders now, not just because I already missed the boat, but also because I clearly stated in my trade plan that I will close all orders prior to the NFP release. Don’t I get extra brownie points for being extra disciplined?
How about you? Were you able to catch this drop?
After almost losing my NZD/USD range trade last week, I’m determined to end up with a winner this time!
You see, a falling trend line on NZD/USD’s 1-hour chart first caught my attention like a pair of animal-print pumps on sale. Then, I put up my Fibonacci lines before I realized that a potential test of the trend line would also line up with a 50% Fib retracement!
Stochastic is still in the oversold region though, so the pair still has room to reach my potential entry-level at .8100. The question is, will the pair even reach my entry? Remember that the comdolls took a hit yesterday after the RBA cut its rates by 0.50% and word got around that the ECB might turn dovish in its interest rate statement today at 12:45 pm GMT.
Of course, it doesn’t help the Kiwi that New Zealand’s employment numbers were more disappointing than my latest attempt at baking salmon!
The country’s unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 6.7% in the first quarter when analysts were expecting a 6.3% figure. Not only that, the employment change report also disappointed with only a 0.4% growth against expectations of a 0.5% rise.
In any case, here’s what I plan to do:
Short at .8100, place stop above the Fibs, WATR, and trendline (at .8140) and then place my first PT at .8050.
Since the NFP is only a few hours away, I decided that I will close my orders or open positions just hours before the NFP release tomorrow. A girl can’t be too careful, right?
I’ll be risking 0.5% of my account on this day trade as always. If you’re thinking of joining me on this one, check out our risk disclosure first.
What do you think of my plans? As always, any advice would be much appreciated!
Let’s start this month strong, buddies!
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