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Trade Closed: 2008-03-03 09:33

Our trade closed on Friday as there was a reversion from risk, as higher risk assets fell (equities, commodities, higher yielding assets, etc.)…

Total: -100 pips
-1% loss

I still feel the fundamentals are still intact for a NZD/USD rally, we probably just saw profit taking after a strong rally from .7800 to .8200. The pair’s fall has slowed between .79 – .80, so I would look to start building a long position around this area. Until the next trade idea. 🙂

Trade Idea: 2008-02-28 11:17


The New Zealand Dollar has been on a tear hasn’t it? Will it continue or has the rally run out of steam?

There’s so much going on fundamentally, starting with Fed Chairman Bernanke statements to Congress signaling more US interest rate cuts, that I think this pair will continue to march higher as speculators price in further weakness in the US Dollar and take advantage of the higher NZ interest rates. Also, we see commodity prices rolling higher on demand, supporting commodity driven countries like New Zealand.

On the chart, it is plain to see the pair is trending higher on the 4 hr chart. Stochastics are trending lower, indicating to me this pair may retrace on its strong rally. I look to buy in if we see .8100 again.

Long NZD/USD at .8100, stop at .8000, pt1 at .8200, pt2 at .8300

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Please adjust position sizes accordingly!

Good luck my friends!

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