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Trade Closed: 2010-05-04 23:41

PoD Chart

Sorry for the late update but I didn’t expect the EURUSD to drop 300 pips in just two days. Just… wow. Apparently, those debt contagion fears finally caught up with the market and triggered wave after wave after wave of risk aversion.

First profit target hit at 1.3150: +150 pips
Second profit target hit at 1.3000: +300 pips
Total: +450 pips / +225 pips (avg) / +1.50% Gain

Awwwwwwwwww yeah! Forgive me for being overly ecstatic; I just can’t help it! This is probably my best trade yet, as my initial fundamental and technical analysis was spot on. I didn’t even sweat one bit during the entire ordeal. Hopefully, I can keep finding ways to short the EURUSD on retracements and profit on the strong case of risk aversion.

Trade Idea: 2010-04-27 23:23

PoD Chart

I’m setting my sights at the next possible down drift of the EURUSD. At present, the pair is trying to rally after it dipped by more than 200 pips yesterday. Using my Fibonacci tool, the 1.3300 marker appears to be a good candidate for a short entry. Could the previous support at this level act now as a resistance? I think so. Still, my desired entry is about 100 pips away from the current market price. The pair, though, has a lot of room to move higher since the stochastics are very much far from the overbought area.

I’m going to place my short entry at 1.3300 with my stop loss at 1.3450 which is above yesterday’s high. I’m also placing my targets at 1.3150 and 1.3000.

I’ve skipped on over to Pip Diddy’s round up today, and I read that the Greece’s debt got downgraded! Apparently, the Greeks will need even more than the 45 billion EUR aid package that the EU and IMF were initially ready to give. They might need as much as 70 billion EUR! I think that the EU and IMF may have a hard time agreeing to give additional aid, especially since Germany’s Financial Chancellor Angela Merkel isn’t quite ready to give a helping hand. Reminds me of how my older cousins used to treat me when I was younger – ha!

With Portugal also getting downgraded yesterday, things are looking downright muddy for the euro zone! With all these debt issues going around, I think its about time I looked to short the euro as well!

One thing I have to look out for though, is the FOMC report later tonight. In his recent article, Forex Gump said if the Fed takes out the phrase “extended period” from their statement, we could see the dollar rally. I have to be careful though, because we could see lots of strong moves following the release of the statement, so I think I’ll put a wider stop on this trade…

Here’s my master plan:

Short EURUSD at 1.3300, stop at 1.3450, tp1 at 1.3150, tp2 at 1.3000. I’m only gonna risk 1% of my account in this trade.

I’m hoping this pair zooms all the way to my profit targets in the same way I’m crossing my fingers that Iron Man 2 makes it to the top of the box office on its opening week. I mean, we’re talking about the great Tony Stark here! Oh, and follow me on to see my trade updates!

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