Trade Idea: 2013-3-6 00:41
I’ve been trying to get in on the EUR/USD downtrend for what seems like forever! Will this be my lucky week? This might be my last chance to jump in!
On the hourly chart, we see that EUR/USD has been slowly creeping up the charts. But based on my analysis, it won’t take long for the pair to drop below 1.3000 again.
I won’t jump in on a short just yet. I’ll wait for the pair to test the 1.3100 handle where the 200 SMA is. When candlesticks materialize and if the fundamentals are still in line with my bias, I’ll pull the trigger. I’m looking to place my stop above a previous resistance level at 1.3170 and aim for a new low around 1.2950.
Tomorrow, we’ll get to see the European Central Bank (ECB)‘s decision on monetary policy. I think the ECB has a bit of wiggle room with regards to weakening the euro. A look at the recent inflation data shows that the core CPI is only at 1.3%, which is still far from the ECB’s target. In addition, analysts are saying that there is a strong likelihood that the inflation outlook will be lowered.
I’ve also read some reports saying that Draghi could take some steps to set the table for a rate cut for the next quarter. Presenting updated growth and inflation forecasts may be all that is needed to lay the groundwork for the ECB to finally slash rates by another 25 basis points.
To recap, my plan is to:
Short EUR/USD at 1.3100, stop at 1.3170, pt at 1.2950. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.