Good evening forex fans! After sitting in my position for a few days, it looks like it worked out well thanks to the two most powerful figures in the markets holding back from taking action this week.
Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.
The two main events of the week were whether or not the FOMC and the ECB would take further action to support both of their weakening economies.
And as we can see from the chart above, the support area marked at the beginning of the week on USD/CHF held like a champ (even with the initial weak USD reaction to Draghi) and was the perfect area to take on long Dollar positions after no policy changes from both central banks.
My second position was triggered during the ECB press conference and after rallying over +100 pips from the bottom (along with the end of the Euro session approaching) I decided to close out at market (.9833) and call it a day.
1st half: +40 pips
2nd half: +133 pips
Total: +86.5 pips/ +0.865% gain
In retrospect, I felt like I did a good job holding my position open into both events, which I usually don’t do with major events. But I felt so strongly that neither central bank would make a move, I held on. And out of pure luck, I was right.
What I could have done better was to have been more patient with my exit. At the time of my close, the Euro session was coming close to an end and I felt we may see a pullback on profit-taking. Also, .9850 was showing strong intraday resistance, so since I caught most of the move I figure I wouldn’t push my luck and just take the profits.
After a bit of reflection, a better move would have been to close the half and let the other half ride since both central banks not making a move may push traders into Dollar bullish mode into the next week.
Overall, I’m happy with this trade and the fact that I did alright with my analysis. Oh, and the profit is cool too 🙂
That’s it for me this week as I think I’ll stay away from Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. Thanks for checking out my blog everyone and I hope you all had a profitable week as well. Have a great weekend and see ya next week!
Trade Idea: 2012-07-30 5:23 ET
Good morning forex friends and welcome to a new week of trading! For this round, I’m playing a simple technical setup on USD/CHF. Will the trend be my friend this week?
I have the 60-minute chart of USD/CHF above and we can see the pair testing an area of strong buying interest over the past couple of weeks. Given that the pair has been on a longer-term uptrend, and especially after breaking out higher from the first quarter consolidation, the Dollar bulls still seem to be in control.
Building a swing long position here creates a favorable potential reward-to-risk ratio if I go for the strong resistance level marked on the chart, so I’ll scale right into it now. Here’s what I am going to do:
Long half position USD/CHF at market .9793, stop at .9650, profit target at .9950
Long half position USD/CHF at .9700, stop at .9650, profit target at .9950
This trade structure gives me a potential reward-to-risk of a little over 2:1 if both positions are entered. Now, the target is a bit out of the average weekly volatility range, but we’ve got a cornucopia of major catalysts this week, most notably the FOMC monetary policy decisions and the US Non-Farm Payrolls report.
I’m still in the camp that we won’t see QE3 from the FOMC (which is USD positive for now), but of course, if they do change policy then I gotta change my trade. As always, stay tuned for market observations and trade adjustments.
Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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