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Greetings, fellow Happy Hunters! The trading week is done, so let’s take stock of how the two Variants of the Happy Hunter Price Action Trading System fared this past week, shall we?

By the way, if you need to check out the previous week’s performance under the updated rules, then go ahead and click on the link below.

Also, I’ve rewritten and republished the monthly evaluation to reflect the updated rules. If you’re interested to know how the two Variants fared under the new rules, then click on the link below.

Do note that I actually made a mistake during the forward test under the old rules. You can read more about that in February’s updated evaluation.

Anyhow, below are the topics that we’ll be covering in today’s update:

If you’re a regular reader, then you may wanna use the relevant jump links above to go directly to the actual review.

But if you’re a new reader, then I insist that you read up on that part. Look! It’s right below. So go ahead and read it. Please?

Must-Read For New Readers

If you’re a first-time reader who stumbled across this write-up for some unknown reason, and you have no idea what this is all about, then just know that I crafted a purely mechanical trading system, pursuant to My 2018 Trading Resolution.

If that piques your interest and if you may wanna know more, then click on the links below to read about and understand the rules of the system.

However, let me just give these statements/disclaimers:

Firstly, I make no claim to the profitability of this system (I’m forward testing it after all), so if you use the system to trade real money without doing your own tests, that’s on you, whether you lose money or get lucky and make money

Secondly, there’s no central exchange for the forex market, so there may be discrepancies in our data feed, and it’s highly probable that I may have a valid signal based on my charts where none exist on yours (and vice versa)

Also, here are the parameters/assumptions for my tests, just in case you wanna follow along:

  • Currency pair for the tests is GBP/NZD and only GBP/NZD
  • We only use the 1-hour chart to trade
  • Trading day begins at 12:00 am GMT+2 and ends at 11:00 pm GMT+2
  • Starting account balance is $10,000
  • Max risk per trade is $50 or 0.50% of starting account
  • The lot size is variable, so learn to use (and love) the Position Size Calculator
  • As I’ve been stressing since I laid down my plans in My 2018 Trading Resolution, I’m assuming a fixed spread of 12-pips in all my tests; this system was designed with strict cost control in mind, so variable/floating spread wasn’t even considered
  • In cases where there are weekend gaps that would make the trade invalid (i.e. the market opens way beyond the TP or SL level), it’s assumed that the broker cancels pending orders, just like most of them usually do in real world conditions
  • But for orders that were filled before the weekend gaps, it’s assumed that we get out at TP (even if the gap greatly favors the trade) or at SL (even if the gap is not in favor of the trade) because it’s assumed that the broker guarantees our exit levels, well, that or it’s assumed that we complain and/or threaten to close out our account with the broker

With all of that out of the way, it’s time to finally discuss how the week went.

Below you’ll find charts of each trading day of the week. And if you’re wondering what the numbers on the charts are about, they refer to the trade #, based on the chronological order when the signal was generated, not necessarily when the trade was opened or closed. And the details of each trade are contained in the table after the charts. Just scroll down.

The Fixed TP Variant’s Trade Details

GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 5)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 5)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 6)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 6)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 7)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 7)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 8)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 8)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 9)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 9)
Trade Details (Click to enlarge)

Note: Trades # 31, 32, and 33 are still open and are therefore not included in the table

The Trailing Variant’s Trade Details

GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 5)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 5)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 6)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 6)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 7)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 7)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 8)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 8)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 9)
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart (Mar. 9)
Trade Details (Click to enlarge)

Note: Trades # 31, 32, and 33 are still open and are therefore not included in the table

This Week’s Performance

Trading conditions were okay enough for the most part this past week, so both Variants added to their gains, with the Fixed TP Variant up by 1.99% for the week while the Trailing Variant gained 1.18%.

The relatively strong trends on March 5 and 6 initially gave the Trailing Variant the upper hand. However, daily volatility tightened and price action became choppy after that, so the Trailing Variant began falling behind, allowing the Fixed TP Variant to outpace it.

The choppy, sideways price action on March 9, in particular, is rather worrying since it’s reminiscent of the terrible conditions back in February.

And there is a big risk that trading conditions in March may turn out to be as bad as in February (or worse) since GBP/NZD ‘s price action is tapering into a symmetrical triangle pattern, based on its 4-hour chart.

GBP/NZD: 4-Hour Forex Chart
GBP/NZD: 4-Hour Forex Chart

Of course, a more optimistic outlook is that the triangle may break within the month and we’ll then see strong trends that would allow the Trailing Variant to finally shine and significantly outpace the Fixed TP Variant.

Of course, that could also be just wishful thinking on my part.

The “Bigger Picture” View

Equity Curve Comparison (Feb. 1 - Mar. 9)
Equity Curve Comparison (Feb. 1 – Mar. 9)

Under the updated rules, the Fixed TP Variant is already up by 9.14%, which is off the high water mark of +9.71% but still a pretty good showing. And remember, we always incorporate a 12-pip spread into our trades.

The Fixed TP Variant, meanwhile, is lagging behind with a return of only 4.30%, thanks to the poor trading conditions back in February.

And as mentioned earlier, there’s a big risk that overall price action in March may end up being as unfavorable as in February since GBP/NZD’s price action is clearly tapering while apparently trapped inside a symmetrical triangle chart pattern.

If that happens, then the Trailing Variant will very likely lag behind even further.

But on the bright side, there’s also a good chance that we’ll see strong trends within the month or in the following month. After all, as mentioned in My 2018 Trading Resolution, there’s a trading axiom that:

“A period of consolidation is usually followed by a period of expansion.”

Anyhow, that’s all for now. As always, I enjoy your feedback. So if you have any questions, or if you see a possible error in my work somewhere, or if you just want to say “hi” then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!

Cheers!

Happy