In a few hours the U.S. will print its non-farm payrolls (NFP) for the month of March.
Will the numbers be enough to extend USD/CHF’s slow and steady uptrend today?
Lemme show you the chart I’m looking at:
A lot of my trader friends are already out celebrating long weekends but I couldn’t resist looking for opportunities during the NFP release.
USD/CHF caught my attention because it’s sitting at a trend line support that’s also near the 100 SMA on the 1-hour time frame.Besides, Forex Gump has told me that analysts are betting on another strong month for the U.S. labor market.
On top of that, it’s also likely that our end-of-quarter friends who have taken profits from their dollar trades are back for at least a few more pips during the report’s release.
If the U.S. does print a strong set of NFP data, then we could see USD/CHF bounce from the trend line support and head for its March highs near .9475. That’s about the same as USD/CHF’s average volatility on Fridays!
If employment numbers significantly miss analysts’ expectations, however, or if dollar bulls don’t come back in the game until next week, then USD/CHF could trade below the 100 SMA. I’ll be looking at a retest of the 200 SMA and see if it holds as support or if I should prepare for a longer-term reversal.
What do you think? Will USD/CHF extend its uptrend today? Or will the bears have enough support to drag the dollar down to the 200 SMA and beyond?
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