No strong rally higher for the Greenback after Friday’s better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls. USD actually turned lower on the session, enough to trigger my rolled up stop to close me out for a small profit.
Last week, I decided to roll up my stop to 1.0080 ahead of the month U.S. jobs data as I thought it’s likely we’ll get positive numbers and that this expectation was already priced into the Greenback. I thought if this situation was the case, then we’d get a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” type reaction in the U.S. dollar.
Well, we did get a great U.S. job report, starting with a better-than-expected headline number on Non-Farm Payrolls (235K vs. 185K expected). The unemployment rate also ticked lower to 4.7% and an upward revision to January’s NFP number, but for a more complete picture on the latest jobs data, check out Forex Gump’s recap from this past weekend, “A Quick Review of the February NFP Report.” And as feared, it did turn out to be a selling event in the Greenback, enough to take USD/CHF lower to my adjusted stop at 1.0080 to close out my long position:
Total: +101 pips/ +0.32% gain
Overall, I don’t think there’s anything much I’d do differently and I’m still biased in favor of the Greenback over the Swiss franc for now. But with the FOMC quickly approaching, I think I’ll stay out of USD for a little bit to see what the Fed does and how the Greenback reacts.
Until then, I’ve still got my long NZD/CHF trade working, and it’s going okay so far with the major support area between 0.6950 – 0.7000 holding at the moment. We’ll see if it can continue to hold with New Zealand quarterly GDP data and the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy meeting this week. Depending on the events, I may have to close my NZD/CHF position out early. Stay tuned and trade safe!
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