It ain’t “buyer’s remorse” if you regret NOT buying something, right? Well, whatever it’s called, I’m definitely feeling it for this USD/CAD trade but I guess these gains can still cheer me up. In case you missed it, check out my initial pre-FOMC long USD/CAD trade idea first.
I’ve been watching the long-term ascending channel on USD/CAD for who knows how long, and I had the chance to go long right on the test of support just before the FOMC announcement. The problem is, I wasn’t feeling all that confident about putting some money on the line with a major catalyst on deck. Besides, I knew I wasn’t going to be around to monitor price action during the actual event so I refrained from leaving orders in.
In retrospect, I should’ve gone with my gut even with just a small position at the 1.3125 mark. The FOMC decided to increase interest rates by 0.25% as expected while hinting at three more hikes for next year, causing a sharp rally for USD/CAD right off the channel support. I tried to catch a bit of the move by going long at market on 1.3315 but it looks like price is hitting a ceiling at the 1.3400 mark.
The 1.3400 major psychological resistance lines up with the middle of the channel, which has held as an area of interest in the past. I’ve decided to book my profits as price showed signs of difficulty moving past this level, especially since we’ve got a couple of top-tier reports lined up from Canada this week.
Besides, U.S. data hasn’t been so impressive in the recent New York session so I’m worried that the dollar could have trouble sustaining its climb all the way up to the top of the channel. Profit-taking could start as the Christmas holidays draw near so I’m just gonna take my winnings for now. Here’s what I ended up with:
P/L: +90 pips / +0.08%
I only risked 0.25% of my account on this position so my gains are looking measly, but I’m still happy that this adds to my running total for Q4. Stay tuned for my quarterly blog performance review comin’ up soon!
See also: Q3 2016 Trading Performance Review
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