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Forex Trade Updates: 2014-04-18

Since it’s a holiday weekend, I thought I’d quickly share an update on my thoughts for my two open blog trades.

USD/JPY: Retesting Strong Support

USD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Chart
USD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Chart

It looks like the strong support around 101.50 held like a champ and the pair is moving higher, currently trading around 102.40.  I got in at 101.90 with a small “feeler” position, and my next move is to see what happens at the next minor resistance area around 101.70.

If the market does retest, I’ll look to trail my stop to breakeven, and if it is able to break, then I’ll look to scale in another position and trail my stop up.  If not, reducing risk and locking profits is the usual move from the playbook when the market behaves this way.

NZD/JPY: Hopping Back into NZD Long

NZD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Chart
NZD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Charts

Despite a tick lower in China knocking the comdolls down a bit, NZD/JPY is still finding support at the broken resistance-turned-support.  With the bulk of the monthly China data out of the way, the probability looks good that it could continue to hold and move up from here.

Of course, the RBNZ meeting and monetary policy decision is next week, so I may have to make some adjustments to avoid event risk.

For now, I still like holding yen shorts with the Ukraine-Russia situation not as big a focus for market players at this time, and the behavior of the market despite the “weaker” China data and the BOJ refraining from upping easy money policies.  But just because broad risk sentiment seems to be tipping away from the fear flows we saw in the past few weeks, it doesn’t mean I can relax–all of the stories I just pointed out can turn on a dime!

Okay, maybe I’ll relax just a little bit with this long holiday weekend…but it’s back on the grind come Sunday night!  Until then, have a great weekend!

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