Greetings, comdoll buddies! I took a quick break from my mechanical system tests to crunch the numbers on my discretionary positions for Q4. Take a look!
Forex Trading Performance
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Oct. 16||CAD/JPY Triangle Breakout and Pullback||-200||-0.50|
|Oct. 30||NZD/USD Bearish Trend Continuation||Not taken||Not taken|
|Nov. 6||AUD/CHF Long-Term Area of Interest||Not taken||Not taken|
No. of Forex Trade Ideas: 3
Trades Opened: 1
No. of Wins: 0
No. of Losses: 1
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Total P/L : -200 pips / -050%
Ugh! Not quite the comeback I had been hoping for this year!
I tried building a position with my CAD/JPY long trade idea that I held on to for almost the entire quarter. At the time I opened it, crude oil prices had been on a tear so I thought it would only be a matter of time before the correlated Loonie followed suit.
However, the Loonie didn’t seem to want to take cues from the commodity one week after another, before ultimately giving up a lot of ground on the switch in BOC bias and eventually a drop in oil prices. I really should’ve exited early when I had the chance!
This makes my Q4 performance worse than the previous two since my one and only trade for the period turned out to be a big loss. *cries in a corner*
I had a couple of trade ideas that followed but hesitated to jump on either of those. Looking back, I really really wish I did take the AUD/CHF short, but I’m happy I stayed out of NZD/USD.
For the former, I planned on hopping in on a pullback to the descending trend line and former triangle bottom around the .7300 mark. I can’t remember why I had second thoughts about setting limit orders, but it was most likely due to expectations that U.S.-China trade relations are about to improve.
As for NZD/USD, I wanted to hop in on a pullback to the channel top, but I also hesitated since trade talks tend to go either way. Besides, markets seem to have gotten used to expecting the worst from these things, so any neutral or slightly positive result tends to spur big rallies… like this:
I gotta tell ya, it’s been tough trading the commodity currencies for the past few months because of their sensitivity to sentiment, which in turn appears to be pushed around by trade updates. It has been hard to get a handle on how those situations could turn out, and even price action hasn’t been so straightforward.
I guess what I’ve learned from the quarter is to be quick about switching biases, given these types of market conditions.
For instance, I could’ve hopped in the opposite side of that CAD/JPY long seeing how it broke below the long-term support levels I was watching. Had I kept my eye on NZD/USD price action, I probably could’ve taken the counter trade when it broke past the channel top.
I may have still been reeling from my losses in the earlier quarters as my trading confidence has taken a huge dent. Got any tips on how I could pull myself out of this rut next year?
As always, I love getting your feedback and suggestions. Happy holidays, everyone!
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