I’m still looking at my system logs for the week and now I’ve rounded up the numbers for my new mech system this year: the Inside Bar Momentum strategy! Did it fare as well as my SMA Crossover Pullback system?
If this is the first time you’re reading about this, I suggest you take a look at the system rules first.
I know I haven’t really covered the position sizing rules for this system just yet but, for simplicity’s sake, I decided to assume 1% risk per trade (gasp!) in order to help me analyze performance. And since I’m testing on a per pair basis, I crunched the numbers for USD/JPY first:
From a total of 30 positions for Q1, only 33% or 10 trades turned out profitable while the rest were in the red with an average loss of 0.94%. However, this was made up for by larger average wins of 2.33% when the positions hit their full profit targets.
All in all, USD/JPY ended up with a 4.38% gain for the period. Now here are the numbers for GBP/JPY starting mid-January when I started running the system on this pair:
This pair had a much better win rate of 43% and a larger total profit of 11.55% for almost the same period. Given the mech system rules, the average win in % is still around 2.33% when price hits the profit target while the average loss is 1% when the position hits its full stop loss. Compared to USD/JPY, I’d probably be more comfortable trading Guppy using this system, knowing that its longest winning streak was four trades while its longest losing streak was three trades.
As I’ve mentioned in my recent updates, I’m thinking of applying a trailing stop once price has moved a certain amount while widening the initial stop. Look out for my system tweaks soon!