If y’all can still recall Tuesday’s setup, one of our scenarios on how to play the channel breakout on AUD/NZD was to look for shorting opportunities if the 1.0640 handle holds as resistance. And, well, that scenario played out beautifully because the pair moved about a hundred pips lower since we last saw it. So give yourself a pat on the back if you were able to ride it down.
With that out of the way, we’ve got two scenarios yet again for today’s play. The first is that 1.0540 holds as support, allowing the bulls to gun for resistance at the 1.0640 handle. The second scenario, meanwhile, is for support to fail, with the likely destination being the channel’s support area.
The main argument for the upside scenario is that our technical indicators seem to favor it. Looking at the chart above, y’all can see that the moving averages are already in uptrend mode while stochastic is spiking higher after leaving oversold territory. Technical arguments for the second scenario, meanwhile, include the fact that bearish interest was strong enough to push the pair back into the channel, as well as price closing below the two moving averages, since those imply strong bearish interest.
Unfortunately, our Fibonacci retracement setup for GBP/CHF from last Friday didn’t pan out since the pair decided to trade sideways instead. Boo hoo! Wait! I’m gangsta, and gangstas don’t cry. Anyway, looking at how price action played out, we can see that sellers seem well-entrenched at 1.2510. However, buyers are not letting up, which is why the pair has been making higher lows (or trough). In the process, an ascending triangle has formed, although it also looks kinda like a bullish pennant on the higher time frames.
Anyhow, an ascending triangle is a bullish pattern. And if the pair validates the pattern by breaking higher, then the resulting rally would probably have enough steam for a 160-pip move. Of course, there’s always a chance that the pair may break to the downside instead. And if does, then the pair will likely find fresh buyers waiting at 1.2340. However, a clean downside break past 1.2340 may allow the pair to go even lower to the price area with significant market interest at 1.2180.
As y’all can see on that there chart, USD/JPY has been steadily moving higher while inside an ascending channel. And presently, the pair is hugging the channel’s support area, so y’all better start looking for opportunities to go long. Be careful, though, since stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions. If enough bears are entice to jump in, we may even get a downside channel breakout instead, so you may wanna consider that scenario as well. In any case, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
Forex Chart Settings:
To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.