First up on today’s lineup is that there descending channel for AUD/USD. As I always say, one of the more conservative ways to play a descending channel is to look for opportunities to go short near the channel’s resistance area. And lucky us since that’s where price is currently at. Stochastic is even signaling overbought conditions already, so we’ve got another technical argument supporting further moves to the downside. The only worrying thing here is that price has recently been closing above the moving averages, since that could mean strong bullish interest.
Next, AUD/JPY finally staged a downside breakout from a well-respected ascending channel. However, price seems to have found some buyers at the 79.00 major psychological level. This gives us three scenarios: (1) price moves lower past 79.00, (2) price respects 79.00 and moves back up and inside the channel, or (3) price moves back up but finds sellers at the 79.70 handle, which is a price area with some market interest. Looking at our technical indicators, stochastic has already reached oversold territory, so the second and third scenarios seem more probable, at least for now. The moving averages, meanwhile, are still in uptrend mode. They’re just about to cross-over into downtrend mode, though. And that the supports first and third scenarios, given the bearish bias on the two scenarios.
Finally, the ascending channel that we’ve been playing since October 7 finally got invalidated yesterday, giving us yet another downside channel breakout. For this setup, we’re going with a Fibonacci play. And it looks like the 38.2% retracement level would be a good candidate for a pullback, given that stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions. Also, the 38.2% retracement level is just below the 0.7480 handle. And the said handle is a price area with significant market interest, as highlighted above. Of course, there’s always a chance that the pair could go higher, so make sure to practice proper risk management, okay?
Forex Chart Settings:
To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.