After a plunging for several days, NZD/CHF finally bottomed out and started pulling back when it found fresh buyers at 0.6880. And presently, the pair pulled all the way back to the 0.7000 major psychological level, which has alternatively served as resistance and then minor support earlier. And if we apply our Fibonacci tool, we can see that the 0.7000 area sits right smack on the 38.2% retracement level, which supports an argument for a swing lower sooner or later. Stochastic is also about to reach overbought territory, which is another confidence booster for a move to the downside sooner or later. The only worrying this is that price has been closing above the 100 and 200 SMA’s, which implies some bullish interest.
Forex traders who are bullish on GBP/CAD have been trying to push the pair higher, forming higher troughs in the process. However, the 1.7400 major psychological level appears to be well-defended by sellers, so much so that an ascending triangle pattern has now formed. An ascending triangle is a bullish chart pattern, but given that the prior trend before price began consolidating was a downtrend, there’s also a chance that the pair could break to the downside instead. In any case, the base of the triangle is about 500-pip tall, so a breakout in either direction could potentially last for the same amount.
Finally, we’ve got that there break-and-retest setup for CAD/CHF. And as y’all can see, the pair staged a downside channel breakout but got rejected when it reached the 0.7450 minor psychological level. The rejection was violent enough that the pair retreated all the way back to the broken channel’s support area, which also happens to line up rather nicely with the area of interest at 0.7540. In addition, the moving averages have now crossed-over into downtrend mode, and it looks like the 200 SMA may act as dynamic resistance, which reinforces our bearish directional bias on the pair.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.