The pair has been trending lower while trapped in that there descending channel since early June. Presently, the pair is on its way back up after testing the channel’s support area, so better get ready if you’re planning to go short on the pair. Conservative forex traders may wanna wait for the pair to test the channel’s resistance area, but for the more aggressive traders, just know that there’s a chance that the pair won’t get there since the pair is approaching 1.5390, which is a price area of interest and a support area that was broken during the previous downswing. Also, 1.5390 sits between the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, so many forex traders may be looking at that, and the 100 SMA would be acting as dynamic resistance if or when price does get there, not to mention the fact that stochastic has already reached overbought territory.
AUD/NZD recently staged a downside breakout from that rectangle pattern. And while the bearish momentum looked convincingly strong, the pair got violently rejected when it reached the 1.0310 handle, causing price to pull back to the rectangle’s broken support at 1.0420 while giving us a textbook break-and-retest setup in the process. And if we apply our handy Fibonacci tool, we can see that 1.0420 is just below the 50% retracement level. Not only that, stochastic is signalling overbought conditions while the moving averages are in downtrend mode, with the 200 SMA seemingly acting as dynamic resistance.
NZD/USD broke past resistance at 0.7240 but the bullish run quickly got capped and the pair went back down to the 0.7240 handle. This gives us two scenarios: (1) 0.7240 holds as resistance-turned-support, or (2) price breaks past that test that there rising trend line that has been respected since May. For now, the most likely scenario is the first one since stochastic is signalling oversold conditions. More conservative forex traders may wanna wait for the second scenario, though.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.