EUR/CAD has been moving lower while making lower highs since the start of April but it now seems to have encountered support at 1.4230, forming a descending triangle in the process. A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern, so our main directional bias is to the downside, although there’s always a chance that price could break out in the opposite direction, especially since stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions. In any case, a breakout move would likely last for around 200 pips since that is the height of the forex chart pattern.
The recent price action on EUR/CHF is a mirror-image of EUR/CAD’s since EUR/CHF has been moving higher before finally finding resistance at the 1.1010 handle, which is a price area with significant market interest, even on the higher time frames. As such, an ascending triangle, which is a bullish chart pattern, has now formed on EUR/CHF’s 1-hour time frame, although it also does look kinda like a bullish pennant if you zoom out to the higher time frames. Anyhow, if we’re looking at the pattern as a triangle, then a breakout could have enough steam for only 60 pips or so, but if we look at the pattern as a bullish pennant, then the breakout move may have enough momentum for a 120-pip move.
A rising wedge has now formed on EUR/JPY’s 1-hour time frame, which means that there is a better-than-average chance that the pair is in for more downside moves. The chart pattern has a volatility of around 230 pips, so a downside breakout would likely move for the same amount. Stochastic is also signalling overbought conditions, which is a real confidence booster for our bearish bias. The moving averages are kinda worrying, though, since they’re indicating a healthy uptrend and there’s no sign that they’ll be crossing over soon. As usual, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, okay?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.