As y’all can see, price moved lower after violating a rising trend line, but then hesitated a bit when it reached the price area of interest at 0.9960. However, there was more than enough selling interest to push the pair even lower. The downside joyride finally ended when price got violently rejected at the 0.9660 handle, giving us a potential break-and-retest + Fibonacci retracement double setup in the process. Price milled about for a bit when it reached the 38.2% retracement level, but is now making its way higher to potentially test the 50% retracement level, which happens to line up nicely with the 0.9960 handle. The moving averages are about to cross-over into uptrend mode, though, but stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions, so some sellers may be enticed to start nibbling soon.
AUD/CHF has been grudgingly moving lower while trapped inside a rather wide descending channel. And as I endlessly say, one of the most conservative ways to play with a descending channel is to look for selling opportunities near the top of the channel. Unfortunately, price is just above the mid-channel area, so conservative forex traders should keep that in mind. For aggressive traders, however, just know that stochastic is already in overbought territory and price is currently hesitating at the 0.7070 handle, which is a price area of very significant market interest even on the higher time frames. Heck, if the 0.7070 handle holds, we may even see a mini double top forex chart pattern. Anyhow, just note that the descending channel is still valid, so price may move higher first before coming down again.
Don’t fret if you’re getting a sense of déjà vu after looking at that there chart since that is the updated 4-hour chart of last Wednesday’s descending channel setup for CHF/JPY. If you were able to find a shorting opportunity back then, make sure to give yourself a pat on the back for your 200+ pips. Anyhow, for today’s play, we are looking at a counter-trend setup due to four technical reasons: 1) stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions; 2) price is near the bottom of the channel; 3) the support area at the 115.00 major psychological level is significant (take a look at what happened on January 15, 2015); and 4) if support holds, then a double bottom on the 1-hour chart may form. As usual, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals