That there is CHF/JPY’s updated forex chart showing that the 100-pip trading range or rectangle that we identified back on Monday is still intact. Also, y’all can probably see that price just bounced off support at 122.80 and is now making its way back up. Bullish aggressive traders may be enticed to jump in, especially since stochastic is already pointing up and moving away from oversold territory. For more conservative forex traders, however, it would probably be best to wait for price to bounce off resistance at the 123.80 handle or the mid-channel area at 123.30 where the 200 SMA could potentially act as dynamic resistance. Speaking of the 200 SMA, the moving averages have recently crossed-over into downtrend mode, so our main directional bias for a breakout is now to the downside.
USD/JPY broke out to the downside from the rectangle we identified last Tuesday with sufficient and convincing momentum. Alas, the bearish momentum lost steam and price began pulling back after getting rejected at the 120.40 handle. Now, price is back at the 122.50 minor psychological level, giving us a textbook break-and-retest setup. This also means that this is not exactly a rectangle setup, but it’s based on a rectangle breakout, so it’s still a rectangle setup, right? Right? Anyhow, the Fibonacci tool is not applicable since price already blew past the 61.8% retracement level. The only technical arguments supporting a downtrend continuation is that the stochastic is moving away from the overbought region and the moving averages are still indicating a downtrend, but the fact that price is closing above both the 100 and 200 SMAs is a bit worrying since that could mean strong bullish interest, so do be careful.
GBP/JPY began trading sideways when it found support at the 182.60 handle, but selling interest seems to be strong at the 183.70 handle as well, which is a 110-pip trading range or rectangle has formed. Anyhow, price looks like it would be ready to go back up to test the rectangle’s resistance again since stochastic has already reached the oversold territory, so forex traders bullish on the pair may be exhausted soon. Do note that the moving averages are still indicating a healthy downtrend, however, so be quick to change directional bias, especially if price seems to be using the 100 SMA as dynamic resistance. As usual, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, okay?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals