I’ve got an Aussie + forex chart pattern double special for today, and I’ll start with this well-respected descending channel on AUD/NZD’s 1-hour forex chart. I keep repeating it like a broken clock, but the most conservative way to play a descending channel is to look for resistance near the top of the channel, which is also where price is currently at. Even better, stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions while the 100 SMA is acting as dynamic resistance. Do note that price just recently broke past the support area at 1.0650, but the bearish momentum seems rather weak for some reason, so be careful since there’s a chance for a temporary channel break to retest the support-turned-resistance area at 1.0650, or even a full-blown upside breakout.
AUD/JPY has been consolidating inside a rather tight 60-pip trading range or rectangle on its 1-hour forex time frame, with resistance at the 86.20 handle and support at the 85.60 handle. And if you zoom out to the higher time frames, you can see that the resistance area at the 86.20 handle is a price area of very significant market interest. And since stochastic is currently pointing down and moving away from overbought territory, and also given that the moving averages have recently crossed-over into downtrend mode, with the 100 SMA acting as dynamic resistance. The most likely direction for a breakout is therefore to the downside. Make sure to always check the forex calendar for potential catalysts, though (*cough* RBA rate decision *cough*).
Hmmm. An ascending triangle has formed on EUR/AUD’s 1-hour forex time frame, which is rather weird since the overall trend is still down and ascending triangles usually form on uptrend. Oh, well. I’ll take what I can get. Anyhow, the triangle has a volatility of around 200 pips, so the resulting rally from a breakout could probably have enough momentum to move for the same amount. But do prepare for a downside breakout as well since the overall trend is still down and since triangles have a tendency of breaking out in the opposite direction. In addition, the resistance area at the 1.5550 minor psychological level has seen very significant market interest, so it could be very well defended. And besides, last Friday’s descending channel for this pair is actually still valid. In any case, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals