The most conservative way to play an ascending channel is to look for support near the bottom of the channel. And, as luck would have it, that’s precisely where price is currently at, based on NZD/CAD’s 1-hour forex chart. Our technical indicators look promising, too, since the moving averages are clearly showing a healthy uptrend while stochastic is already pointing up, which could mean that forex traders who are bullish on the pair may be in control already. The only thing that worries me is that price has been closing below the 200 SMA, which implies that selling interest is rather strong.
Price recently broke out of a tight, 70-pip trading range or rectangle with sufficient and convincing bullish momentum. However, it immediately encountered sellers shortly after the breakout, pushing price down for a test of the rectangle’s previous resistance area at the 1.0720 handle. And if we apply our Fibonacci tool, we can also see that the 1.0720 handle happens to sit right smack on the 50% retracement level. Stochastic is also already starting to point up, so bulls may start coming in soon in order to push the pair higher. However, do note that the overall trend is still down and the moving averages are still clearly in downtrend mode, with the 200 SMA acting as dynamic resistance, so there’s also a chance that price will go further down instead.
CHF/JPY has been happily bouncing higher inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour forex time frame. Price is currently at the top of the channel, so conservative forex traders should probably sit this one out. As for aggressive forex traders, just note that that the moving averages are still in uptrend mode, although they seem to be moving closer together for a potential cross-over into downtrend mode and stochastic is already pointing down. Still, I find the way price is sticking to the top of the channel rather disconcerting since it could potentially mean that forex traders who are bullish on the pair are preparing for a possible topside breakout. Anyhow, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, okay?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals