CHF/JPY has been bouncing along that there ascending channel on its 1-hour forex chart since the start of September. Presently, price is currently finding some support mid-channel after recently bouncing off the top of the channel. This give us two major scenarios: (1) price continues moving downward, or (2) price moves back up again for a potential upside channel breakout. Looking at our technical indicators, we can see that stochastic has just reached the oversold region. The moving averages are also showing a healthy uptrend, with the 200 SMA acting as dynamic support, to boot. Overall, there seems to more technical arguments for an upside move, but conservative forex traders should probably wait for support to clearly form since there’s always a chance that price will just keep going downward.
The symmetrical triangle setup that we identified on EUR/JPY’s 4-hour forex chart back on Tuesday is still alive and well. In addition, price moved lower for about 200 pips since last we saw it, so congratulations if you were able to ride it out. However, price is currently about to test the bottom of the triangle, and stochastic has already reached oversold territory, so the sellers may be exhausted already. The moving averages are still in downtrend mode, though, and the bearish momentum seems to be rather strong so there’s also a possibility of a downside breakout. And do note that the forex chart pattern is around 700 pips tall, so the resulting sell-off could last by the same number of pips.
Well, it ain’t that pretty, but that sure looks like a head and shoulders reversal pattern to me, so REVERSAL ALERT! The neckline is slanting upwards a bit, but it roughly falls around the 86.30 handle, so if this forex chart pattern is validated, we’ll the resulting sell-off would probably have enough steam for a 200-pip move since that is roughly the height of the pattern from the head to the neckline. Stochastic has reached the oversold area, though, and the moving averages are still indicating an uptrend, so there’s also a possibility that the chart pattern will be invalidated. In any case, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.AUD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart