Looks like the ascending triangle that we found on AUD/CHF’s 1-hour forex chart last Thursday hasn’t been broken yet. If only there were some fundamental catalysts that could help things move along *cough* RBA meeting minutes *cough*. In any case, if you took my aggressive scenario into consideration and traded within the triangle, then congratulations on your 100 pips.
For today, the moving averages seem to have stopped oscillating and are now showing an uptrend. Price has also been closing above the two SMAs, and the 100 SMA is even acting as dynamic support to boot. As for stochastic, it’s currently indicating potentially overbought conditions, but keeps pointing up, so forex traders bullish on the pair may be out of the fight just yet. And just a reminder, but if this forex chart pattern does break, then we’ll probably see a 270-pip move since that is roughly the height of the triangle.
Forex traders who are bullish on the pair as well as forex traders who are bearish on the pair are playing a game of tug-o-war on EUR/AUD’s 1-hour forex time frame yet nobody seems to be winning since a symmetrical triangle has clearly formed. As a symmetrical triangle, we don’t really have any directional bias, and the moving averages aren’t really helping either. But, the overall, long-term trend is still up, so the path of least resistance seems to be to the upside. In addition, stochastic is currently in oversold territory, so the bears may be exhausted already. If this triangle does break, then the rally or selloff would probably last for around 680 pips, which is roughly the volatility of the triangle.
After validating an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on AUD/CAD’s 1-hour forex chart, price began moving ever higher while continuously meeting sellers along the way. Now, price is approaching the 0.9450 minor psychological level, which is a price area of very significant market interest, even on the higher time frames, so there is an above-average chance that resistance will form here. And if we apply our Fibonacci tool, we can see that the 0.9450 level sits between the 61.8% and 50% retracement levels. Furthermore, stochastic is already in the overbought region, so forex traders bearish on the pair may start nibbling soon. The only thing to worry about is that the moving averages have already crossed-over into uptrend mode. As usual, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.AUD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart