We’ll start of with this updated 1-hour forex chart for USD/JPY. If y’all remember, I mentioned two possible scenarios in yesterday’s intraday forex charts update, and it looks like the downside channel breakout scenario was triggered.
For today’s play, I have three scenarios in mind: (1) price crawls back into the ascending channel, (2) price keeps going down, or (3) price pulls back and then continues going down. Looking at our indicators, the moving averages are still indicating an uptrend, which supports the first and third scenarios. The same can be said for stochastic since it’s currently signalling potentially oversold conditions.
If the pair does pull back first before going back down, the most likely pullback areas would be at the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels since those levels are close to the 124.50 minor psychological area, a price area which has seen some market interest. In addition, if price pulls back to those levels, then it would also mean a re-test of the channel’s bottom.
Next! We’ve got this lovely ascending channel on USD/CHF’s 1-hour forex time frame. As y’all know, the conservative way to play an ascending channel is to look for support near the bottom of the channel. And it looks like price is currently moving towards the bottom of the channel. The moving averages are still in uptrend mode and stochastic is already moving into oversold territory, so forex traders bearish on the pair may be exhausted soon.
The only worrying thing is that the momentum of the down-move is rather strong, so there’s a small chance for a downside channel breakout instead. I don’t think that’s likely, though, since this channel has been respected since June, but do make the necessary preparations just in case.
Finally, we have this potential trading range for AUD/USD. As y’all can see, the pair tried to push down and past support at the 0.7270 handle, but ultimately got repelled. Now, price is back at the 0.7350 minor psychological area, a price area of significant market interest. Will resistance form here? Well, I think there’s a good chance that it will. Stochastic, for one, is already in overbought territory, so forex traders who are bullish on the pair may potentially be exhausted already. In addition, the moving averages are coming closer together for a potential cross-over into downtrend mode, and both the 100 SMA and 200 SMA are acting as dynamic resistance.
If resistance does form, the bears would probably be gunning for the support area at the 0.7270 handle again. And as usual, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on any of these charts.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.AUD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart