This is the updated chart from last Friday’s bounce-from-support setup on CAD/JPY’s 1-hour forex chart. After bouncing off from support at the 94.50, the pair moved for over a hundred pips with such convincing bullish momentum that price broke through the falling trend line that you can see on the above chart. Moreover, bullish momentum was so strong that price managed to push through the 100 SMA and 200 SMA before consolidating into what looks like a bullish flag pattern. Our directional bias for this forex chart pattern is obviously to the upside, although there is always a possibility for a downside breakout. If this is indeed a flag, and the pair breaks to the upside, then we can probably expect price to move for about a hundred pips since that is the height of the flag and its pole.
Next, we’ve got a plain vanilla descending channel on CHF/JPY’s 1-hour forex time frame. The basic and conservative way to play a descending channel is to look for resistance near the top of the channel. And based on the chart, price currently seems pretty close to the top.
I think resistance will form here for these technical reasons: (1) current price levels around the 128.70 handle have seen significant market interest in the past, (2) the moving averages are in downtrend mode, (3) the 100 SMA is acting as dynamic resistance, (4) stochastic is about to enter overbought territory, so forex traders who are bullish on the pair may be exhausted already.
NZD/JPY has been consolidating in what looks like a massive ascending triangle, which is strange since the overall trend is down, even though the moving averages have been oscillating for the past two weeks. Price seems to have trouble breaking through resistance at the 82.90 handle, but if we apply the Fibonacci tool to the most recent swing, we can see that price seems to be holding at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is also already in the oversold region, indicating that bulls may potentially be taking over soon.
In the event that this is a valid ascending triangle and price breaks out to the topside, then we can expect a volatility of roughly 230 pips since that is the height of the triangle. But as a triangle, there is also a chance that price will breakout in the opposing direction, and prudent forex traders should prepare for that scenario as well.
As usual, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on any of these charts.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.AUD/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart