Are you looking for a simple consolidation play? If yes, then look no more since AUD/CHF has been respecting a trading range between the 0.7270 and 0.7120 handles. The basic way to play a trading range is to either look for resistance at the top of the range or look for support at the bottom of the range. We’re a bit unlucky since price is already moving up after finding support at the bottom of the range. Fortunately, stochastic is already in overbought territory, so forex traders bearish on the pair may start nibbling soon. Hopefully, just enough sellers would come in to push price back to the bottom of the trading range, but not enough to cause a downside breakout.
After using the 100 SMA as dynamic resistance, NZD/USD pushed through support at the 0.6820 handle with sufficient and convincing momentum. Now, the downward push seems to have stalled after reaching the 0.6750 minor psychological level. Will there be enough forex traders bullish on the pair to cause a pullback?
If a pullback does occur and it reaches the previous support area around the 0.6820 handle, then we got us a break-and-retest play. If we apply our Fibonacci tool, we can also see that the previous support area lines up quite nicely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Also, the moving averages show that the downtrend is still healthy while stochastic is moving up from oversold territory, indicating that bullish forex traders may already be pushing price higher for a pullback.
A descending triangle has formed on USD/JPY’s 1-hour forex chart, which is weird since the overall trend is still up and descending triangles usually form in downtrends. Well, I’ll take what I can get, so let’s talk about this forex chart pattern.
A downside breakout has already occurred, although the downward push immediately lost momentum. But should the downward push continue, we are looking at a potential 300-pip move since that is the volatility of the triangle’s base. Still, the lack of momentum worries me since it could mean that price would try to get back inside the triangle. And as with all triangles, there’s also a chance that an upside breakout will occur, so prudent forex traders should consider that possibility too.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.