Reversal alert! A potential double bottom has formed on the 1-hour chart for AUD/USD. It looks healthy enough and while the area pattern’s neckline is at the 0.7800 major psychological level, it hasn’t been an area of significant market interest in the recent past, so there’s a chance that forex traders bullish on the pair will exhaust and then push through the bears. The area pattern’s volatility from the bottoms to the neckline is about 200 pips, so if a valid double bottom does form, there’s a good chance that price would have enough momentum to go up for the same amount. But since the general trend is still down, there’s also a chance that price will use the 0.7800 as a launching pad to push price further down, especially if new sellers start coming in.
After breaking down and through the 0.7200 major psychological level, AUD/CHF finally got violently rejected at the 0.7080 handle. Now, price is back at the 0.7200 level, testing it. Will resistance form here? I say there’s a better-than-average chance since price is currently at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Also, the 100 SMA and 200 SMA are in downtrend mode, with the 200 SMA acting as dynamic resistance. The 0.7200 level has also seen significant market interest in the recent past, so forex traders bearish on the pair may start to nibble soon. Oh, stochastic is also currently in oversold territory, indicating that buyers may already be exhausted. Still, a minor uptrend has formed so there’s a possibility that price will go down, hit the uptrend trend line, and then keep going back up. But the technical arguments for a strong downside move are stronger, though.
AUD/NZD is the exact opposite of AUD/CHF since the directional bias is for an upside move, based on the technical arguments. This is also a Fibonacci retracement play, with price recently bouncing off the 50% Fibonacci retracement at the 1.0750 minor psychological level. Price also seems to be respecting the downtrend trend line, hesitating to go up further, and indicating that further moves to the downside are a possibility. Not only that, price also has to contend with the 1.0850 minor psychological level should it break through the trend line. But if it does, the upside move would most likely be a strong one.
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