Can you believe another forex trading year has come and gone? Here are my trading numbers for the past three months. Feel free to share yours!
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|Oct 5||Catching USD/JPY’s Post-FOMC Uptrend!||+5||+0.0080%|
|Nov 3||GBP/USD to Extend Its Uptrend?||+30||+0.0500%|
|Dec 2||Jumped In on USD/CHF’s Downtrend!||+85||+0.4300%|
No. of Trades Taken: 3
No. of Wins: 3
No. of Losses: 0
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 100%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade:+0.1627%
Total P/L: +0.4880%
The quarter started well enough with a USD/JPY long trade after the Fed’s September statement showed a more hawkish dot plot than markets had hoped for. But the prospect of a not-so-hawkish Powell kept the bulls in check, enough to drag USD/JPY below the channel that I was watching.
Next up was Cable, which showed signs of bouncing from a channel support on not-so-gloomy Brexit prospects while the Greenback was held back by North Korea jitters. But the race for the next Fed Chairman soon gripped the markets and the dollar gained ground on the possibility that hawkish John Taylor would replace my homegirl Yellen.
And then there’s USD/CHF’s downtrend, which worked out when traders got jittery over Mueller’s subpoenas and cautiousness ahead of the GOP’s tax-related votes. Optimism over the vote soon won out and triggered my adjusted stop loss. But hey, a win is a win, right?
As you can see, I’ve managed to keep adding pips to my (small) account. And while that’s all fine and dandy, I’m also not too happy that I only managed to trade THREE times. That’s one trade a month! Here are other trade ideas that I’ve pinpointed (but did not take):
At the time I thought that the Senate passing an important budget measure, as well as speculations of John Taylor taking over the Fed Chairmanship would push the dollar above an ascending triangle pattern. And it did, but the uncertainty around the Fed Chairmanship speculations kept me out of the market. Boo.
Since the dollar kept going higher, I thought we’ll see a resistance-turned-support situation on USD/JPY. However, USD/JPY’s reaction remained muted even as the U.S. Lower House approved of its budget plan and the GDP report printed strong numbers.
On this one I bet that the pound would continue its uptrend since pound bulls seem adamant to push the currency higher even though the rallies were based on RUMORS of agreements between Brexit representatives. Good thing I stayed on the sidelines, though, because the “retracement” turned out to be the start of a short-term downtrend for Cable.
Last but not the least is EUR/USD’s short-term downtrend which we identified in a trading prep earlier that week. At the time I thought of pricing in the ECB’s continued dovishness against tax bill optimism in the U.S. Turns out, the call was a good one. Unfortunately, I didn’t take the trade. Because, you know, reasons. And because there were other top-tier reports that I thought could muddle with EUR/USD’s price action.
Looks like I have my work cut out for me in the year ahead! As my “missed” trades suggest, I can find a good direction (and entry level) for the major dollar pairs. Now I just have to work on actually taking them even when there are other catalysts that might influence price action. Just gotta manage my risks, amirite!
That’s it for me this year, folks! Let me know if some of these scenarios are familiar to you. Better yet, share your own trading yays and woes!
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