Hey all! I hope you’re all staying safe!
Now that the first quarter is behind us, I thought it would be nice to see how the HLHB is doing so far this year.
If you’ve just tuned in, know that the Huck Loves Her Bucks (HLHB) System aims to catch trends by using the 5 and 10 EMAs on the 1-hour charts of major dollar pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
A trade is only valid if RSI crosses above or below the 50.00 mark when the signal pops up. And in this version, I’m adding ADX > 25 as a parameter to weed out the fakeouts.
Check out a backtest that I did if you want to know more about the version that I’m using!
For now, here’s a breakdown of how the system did in the first three months of the year:
The first couple of weeks were relatively calm for EUR/USD since traders were more focused on the comdolls and the developments around the U.S.-China trade war.
It wasn’t until late February and March when the pair REALLY started seeing the volatility from coronavirus concerns and the Fed and ECB’s policy changes.
Thanks to a 400 and a 521-pip win, the HLHB was able to gain a net 867 pips (+2.87%) with an average win of 219 pips. Not bad, huh?
Concerns over the U.K. economy post Brexit got the pound trading like one of the comdolls for the past couple of weeks. Unlike the comdolls, though, the pound still responded to headlines from the European region.
This translated to fakeouts for the HLHB which then led to a shaky win rate. By the end of March, the HLHB had sustained a net loss of 143 pips (-0.48%) from closing eight trades.
As you can see, USD/JPY had the most number of valid signals in the last three months. Not surprising considering the U.S.-China trade war and the Fed’s bazooka (printing?) activities in since the year started.
More trades did NOT translate to a better win rate, unfortunately, as the HLHB sustained more than a few small cuts from several fakeouts.
That’s it for the numbers in this update!
If there’s one takeaway from this quarter’s numbers, it’s that the system still works in times of volatility and one-directional weekly trends.
Over the next couple of months, we’ll see how the global economy and the dollar fare as hard hit countries start to see their infection rates peak and open some of the businesses.
Do you think we’ll still see the same volatility from the major dollar pairs? Or will they calm down enough to only produce fakeouts from here on out?