After technical invalidations, I adjusted my stops on both EUR/JPY and NZD/CAD to limit my max loss on both trades. Both were taken out at the new stops so here’s a quick trade review.
Original Trade Idea: Shorting EUR/JPY into the Downtrend
No luck on my EUR/JPY short as the Greek-EU bailout negotiations continued without an agreement, but also without a Greek exit from the euro zone and a financial crisis…for now at least. Technically, the pair continue its move higher on positive sentiment of no Grexit, taking me out at my adjusted stop at 135.70.
Total: -170 pips/ -0.28% loss
I’m glad I cut out of this one a little early because it looks sentiment has definitely moved to the upside for EUR/JPY, especially when you factor in the ceasefire deal in Ukraine today. No doomsday scenario for the world playing out at the moment, which is great, but until Greece makes a deal and the rebels leave Ukraine, I’ll be one skeptical Cyclops on this move higher.
Original Trade Idea: NZD/CAD Reversing to the Downside?
A sharp drop in oil pushed the Loonie lower and NZD/CAD higher to break aboVE the falling trendline and moving averages on the four hour timeframe. Besides the sharp drop in oil, sentiment was shifting on the New Zealand dollar back to the positive side with better economic numbers recently released. With both the fundamental drivers and price behavior pointing to a move higher, I decided to adjust my max stop from .9550 to .9350 to limit my max risk, which was eventually triggered and took me out for a very small loss.
Total: -200 pips/ -0.50% loss
Based on price action since then, and the fact that oil is still getting hurt, I’m also glad I decided to get out of this trade as well. But I will continue to watch this pair as the picture has shifted into a consolidation pattern that may setup for an easy breakout trade.
Overall, two losses in a row always sting, but I limited my risk and got out of them quickly which makes me happy with my execution. The cross-currency markets are looking a bit choppy right now, but I am eyeing a simple AUD/NZD breakout-trend setup before going into the weekend. Stay tuned!
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