It looks like the technical arguments in AUD/JPY for a short gave way to fundamentals & global sentiment. Decided to close my forex trade early & do a quick review.
Original Trade Idea: Forex Trade Idea: AUD/JPY Short
Since my last adjustment of adding a small quarter position at the falling trendline, we saw a weaker-than-expected Australian retail sales number (but better than previous month) and a general “risk-on” attitude. The latter catalyst was helped along today by positive European earnings reports and this morning’s better-than-expected monthly U.S. jobs numbers. It’s all really about risk sentiment for currencies at the moment, so it’s no wonder that sellers were no where to be found and AUD/JPY easily broke through several technical arguments for potential resistance, including the Fibs, moving average and falling trendline.
With my trade pretty much invalidated and the fundamental catalyst still fresh, I decided to close the whole trade down early by buying back my whole position at market (84.59).
1st half position: -259 pips
2nd quarter position: -105 pips
Total: -175 pips avg./ -0.55% loss
So, I took a small loss, which I think was the right move as the environment is screaming risk-on at the moment. How long that lasts, I don’t know, but I think I’ll keep my positions light for now until we start to see the economic data, sentiment, and technical setups all line up again. And overall, I’ve been on a pretty decent win streak, so it was bound to end sometime. I’m kinda glad I got a small loss in to help me re-center and get back on track.
Time to go get some rest and reflect this weekend, and come back on Monday with fresh ideas to tackle the market. Stay tuned and have a great weekend!
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