AUD/CHF has been moving higher nicely after finding strong support around .7800 this year. After a small pullback and bounce, it might be time for the pair to make a new leg higher.
As mentioned in the four hour chart above, AUD/CHF fell after last week’s RBA meeting minutes that cited a few factors that could potentially be a problem for Aussie strength. It looks like forex traders have shaken this off pretty well, mostly on speculation that the SNB may act to lift the EUR/CHF floor if the ECB does cut interest rates next week.
The pair is back to retesting–and possibly breaking–previously strong resistance at .8300. Of course, I won’t know for sure if it will break until the market steadily stays above .8300, but with risk sentiment shifting back to risk-on, it’s worth it for me to take a nibble, especially with the positive interest rate differential. For now, I’ve set orders to go long at the major psychological level, with a wide weekly ATR stop and my target at the next major area of interest on the higher time frames. Here’s what I am doing:
Long half position at .8300, stop at .8140, adjustment target at .8500
I’m only risking 0.50% for now and this initial trade structure gives me a 1.2:1 potential return-on-risk, but most likely, .8500 is the level where I’d adjust to lock in profits and scale in to maximize profits if it gets up there. If I don’t get my entry at .8300, then I’ll probably enter manually, but for now, I’ll let my orders work.
Also, I decided to close my short orders on EUR/JPY at 140.00 as the pair has moved lower from there quite a bit. I’m still watching this pair, but for now it’s a no touch for me as I don’t think there’s much move this pair can move close to ECB monetary policy meeting next week.
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