This Swiss franc was able to catch some tailwinds produced by today’s ECB meeting, sparking moves in my CHF/JPY & USD/CHF. This triggered me to make adjustments to cut a loss and lock in a gain.
During my last trade adjustment, with the market going my way I decided to add another half position at 112.00 and roll all my stops down to 113.65 to maximize my potential gain and reduce my risk.
Unfortunately, risk aversion in the European markets had traders moving back into safe-haven plays like the Swiss franc over the past few sessions, with the additional push higher coming from the European Central Bank’s monetary policy press conference today. After comments that “risks receding” and that there is no longer a sense of urgency in taking further easing actions, the euro saw gains the pulled the franc up with it.
This was enough to bring CHF/JPY up to my adjusted stop at 113.65 to close my positions out for a small loss:
1st half: +00 pips
2nd half: -165 pips
Total: -0.44% on 0.50% risk
Looking back, I probably should have closed my trade ahead of the ECB meeting because of the strong ties between the euro and franc, but the price action still showing lower highs told me a short was still valid. My stop might have been too tight for today’s event, but I wasn’t going to widen it out and risk more since my position size was bigger. Overall, I wouldn’t have played the trade any differently and I’m still short biased on CHF/JPY but I’ll keep in the watchlist to see how it reacts to the 114.00 to 115.00 area.
Fortunately, I’ve got a winning trade to offset my stopped out CHF/JPY trade above with my USD/CHF long position. Last week, I decided to roll up my stop to 1.000 to lock in a small profit and create a “risk-free” trade, and I’ll look to roll up to lock in more profits with the Swiss franc starting to get some legs under it.
Also, tomorrow we’ve got the U.S. employment report and next week have the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Both are expected to be positive events for the Greenback, and based on recent price action, it’s likely those expectations have already been priced into the U.S. dollar. So, I’m rolling up my stop to 1.0080 to lock in 101 pips (+0.31%) in case we get a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” situation from the upcoming events. I don’t wanna give back these gains, but I am keeping myself open for further profit if the Greenback shoots up higher from here.
That’s pretty much it for now as it’s “wait-and-see” mode, and if the trend remains strong I may still add to the position to maximize my gains. If you’re trading USD/CHF with me, as always, remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t simply follow what I do.
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