The 30 minute EUR/USD has formed an Ascending Triangle. This pattern is also referred to as an asymmetrical pattern since one level is horizontal — in this case the resistance. The horizontal level opens up some potential alternatives to the common momentum set up that is most commonly associated with triangle patterns of any type. But knowing which set up is appropriate is not based on the pattern itself but instead what market cycle is formed within.
The lookback on the 30 minute time frame is one to two weeks. Here’s the one week lookback of the current chart and pattern.
What are some other factors? Consider that the U.S. Dollar is losing ground below 80.50 as equities begin trading for the day. This could help the EUR/USD push higher through the 1.3640 resistance. However, remember that with no data releases today, but a press conference from Pres. Obama, there could be some flight to quality plays setting up or at very least traders waiting to see what the overall market reaction will be. Traders are already in “wait and see” mode with Bernanke‘s Wednesday and Thursday testimony approaching.
The triangle fade has the 1.3650 level also involved. One plan could be to watch for buying support if prices can rally through the 1.3650 level as this should initially be resistance. Give the market at least five pips of wiggle to sort of the opinion at this key psychological level.
If the U.S. Dollar does rally today and the exhaustion level is not hit to trigger a short sell, look for the uptrend line support and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level to trigger a potential pattern breakdown.
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