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There are more reasons I have to want to take the 60-minute swing that I have been waiting for this morning, but the main reason I may not get it is PROXIMITY. Prices are simply just too far away right now from the 34 period EMA low at 1.3545 for me to get this trade. Now 30 pips may not be much – that’s the current number of pips the EUR/USD would have to climb to hit my short trigger – but it’s a possibility that I won’t see that move BEFORE NOON EST. Noon EST is my cut-off for entries because at that point London has “closed” or is “closing” and a big chunk of trading volume and opinion goes with it.

So the alternative is the 30-minute chart with it’s 34 period EMA low at 1.3531 (1) and the resistance of the Descending Triangle downtrend line (2).

4-16-2010 10-03-02 AM.gif

MT4 chart with Autochartist plug-in and the 34EMA Wave indicator

The bounce in the EUR/USD is coming as the Sunday gap closed at 1.3598. The current low is 1.3488. If prices can establish support above the 1.3500 major psychological level, then there is a good chance there could be enough momentum to correct the current downtrend.

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