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Trade Closed: 2011-2-22 02:14

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

Last week, I decided to enter at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after the pair had found resistance. The pair did go my way, but the move down didn’t last long. Before I could adjust my position, the market rallied strongly, broke the falling trend line, and stopped me out. Boo!

Closed at 1.3713: -102 pips / -1.0%

To be honest, I don’t feel a wee bit disappointed. I’ve learned from reading Dr. Pipslow‘s blogs that losing is part of the game. Although it’s not something I like, I just have to deal with it! And besides, it’s my first loss for the year, and I’m still up 1.5% overall!

Trade Idea: 2011-2-17 2:02

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

Okay, I have to admit, I got a little bit too excited when I saw this setup that I almost fell out of my chair!

My entry for this trade will *hopefully* be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this will be a very good trade since Stochastic is already overbought and my desired level coincides nicely with the falling trend line.

But to be perfectly honest, I don’t know what to make out of the lineup of high-caliber reports we have for the pair.

I mean, yesterday the dollar lost to almost all of its counterparts because of risk appetite that was triggered by a relatively upbeat tone of the FOMC minutes. So if the the CPI, unemployment claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index reports come in better than expected, or if Big Ben Bernanke sounds optimistic in his speech later, we may see the pair trade higher.

And so, if market sentiment continues to dictate price action, I would be looking for negative figures before for my trade because these would be bearish on the pair.

I guess the best thing to do for now is wait… wait for price to find resistance at the falling trend line and form bearish reversal candlestick patterns. I’ve got the candlestick cheat sheet printed right on top of my PC, so I’m sure I won’t be missing any sell signals!

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